Is the TikTok Shop Bubble Bursting? Why Creators Are Still Unbothered in 2025
TikTok Shop creators have faced rumors of bans, experienced a real ban, seen a comeback, and are now in the midst of a trade war.
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| Creators say they're ready to pivot. Credit: Zain bin Awais/Mashable composite; Temu; Shein; Apple App store; larrybraunphotography/via Getty Images |
In a standard TikTok video, Jenna Libman highlights the benefits of a $30 Halara exercise dress, praising how easy it makes going to the bathroom, commending its convenience for bathroom breaks while in her living room studio.
Creators like her risk being collateral damage in Trump's intensifying trade conflict with China, which could have major ramifications for the entire TikTok Shop creator economy, but she remains unafraid. Operating in a state of uncertainty is part and parcel of creating a business reliant on an algorithm you cannot control. Over the past year, TikTok Shop has been a rollercoaster, experiencing rumors of a ban, an actual ban, and then a revival.
Currently, the trade dispute is escalating in the U.S., impacting the TikTok Shop as well. The de minimis exemption — a previously obscure rule allowing packages valued under $800 to enter the U.S. without tax — has been revoked, and the President has rolled out new global tariffs. Chinese products may face tariffs soaring up to 245 percent, putting platforms such as Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop in the spotlight.
Can an economy reliant on impulse purchases endure increased prices? The creators we spoke with don't appear to be overly concerned.
As you browse TikTok, you may come across users lamenting about rising prices. Additionally, there are sellers from China attempting to persuade viewers that they offer Lululemon leggings for just $7. However, the creators who are genuinely profiting from TikTok Shop commissions tend to remain silent.
Libman, a content creator with five years of experience in user-generated content (UGC), shared with Mashable that she isn't overly concerned about the tariffs, the de minimis exemption, or the overall economic turmoil of 2025. She believes that none of these changes appear to have lasting implications.
"I believe this is a temporary situation and it's not the right moment to make drastic changes or panic," she stated to Mashable. "In this industry, if you're not ready for fluctuations, then you're in the wrong field. However, it’s simply the way it is. Things will rise and fall naturally, so I don’t think there’s a need for them to change anything at this point."
She was never really concerned about the TikTok ban and believes that this situation will eventually resolve itself.
"Even if they do end up banning it, there will likely be a workaround or the market will shift to something different. So we just sit back and anticipate the next change."
Oh this is too easy now #halara #halaradress #exercisedress ...See moreoriginal sound - jenna libman ✨ UGC Creator
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What is the de minimis exemption?
President Donald Trump reduced the de minimis exception for shipments from China starting May 2, which means that sellers on TikTok Shop will now incur significant tariffs of 120 percent (or a $100 fee "per postal item," increasing to $200 on June 1). As stated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 4 million shipments arrive in the U.S. daily that benefit from the de minimis exemption. President Trump has claimed that shippers based in China exploit the de minimis exemption to transport illegal substances like fentanyl in low-value packages.
Lawmakers from both parties, including Connecticut's Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro, concur that reforming the de minimis provision could hinder the proliferation of drug trafficking in the United States. However, drug traffickers are not the sole group impacted by the removal of the exemption — it is expected to increase costs for average Americans. Research from trade analysts cited by The New York Times indicates that
"Completely eliminating the provision would cost Americans between $11 billion and $13 billion, with these elevated expenses likely having a disproportionate effect on lower-income and minority families."
According to Reuters, 90 percent of all packages that enter the U.S. fall under the de minimis exception, and more than 60 percent of those packages come from China.
The stakes for TikTok Shop
On April 7, TikTok Shop reached out to its retailers with an email that included information for everyone from those selling DIY t-shirts to large companies selling makeup online. The email explained the de minimis exemption, the changes made, its implications for them, and the next steps.
"When the de minimis exemption is removed for a country's goods, duties will be applicable to all impacted shipments regardless of value, and additional supporting documentation may be required to import, previously exempt, goods into the US," TikTok shop said in its email to retailers. "Sellers should continue to ensure they are familiar with all requirements for importing goods into the US. We are actively monitoring these developments and will work to keep you informed."
TikTok Shop relies on ultra-low-cost imports to power viral impulse buying — and if those imports are no longer ultra-low, it's easy to see how that might impact its business model. Still, there were well over 500,000 sellers on TikTok Shop in 2024, according to Sprout Social. Moreover, 37 percent of Americans under 60 years old have purchased something on TikTok Shop, and 36 percent of direct purchases on social media were on TikTok, in comparison to Instagram or Facebook.
We don't know exactly how many of those businesses rely on Chinese imports, but news reports from the time TikTok Shop started found that it was full of counterfeit items from other countries, including China.
But even as prices increase, the elimination of the de minimis exemption is unlikely to kill TikTok Shop completely. As Kimber Maderazzo, Pepperdine Graziadio Business School professor and former Proactiv executive, told Glossy, "consumers love shopping" on places like TikTok Shop so much that it has changed their shopping behavior to the core.
How the de minimis exemption could affect UGC creators and influencers
In addition to individuals and companies that market their goods on TikTok Shop, there is another sector that depends on its success: UGC creators.
"Tariffs on platforms like TikTok Shop don’t just impact product pricing, they ripple through the entire creator economy,"
"Many influencers aren’t just promoting products; they are the small businesses, often relying on affordable overseas manufacturing to run lean DTC brands. If tariffs drive up costs, some creators may need to rethink pricing or product strategy, but creators are uniquely agile. They’ve built loyal communities, and that direct connection gives them room to adapt faster than traditional retailers."
Subramanian stated that these tariffs will create "some short-term complexity," but they also have the potential to "strengthen the long-term worth of the influencer ecosystem." He further remarked,
"It’s decentralized, flexible, and rooted in genuine human connections, which is precisely what brands require when market conditions are unstable."
If you have 1,000 followers on TikTok, you can earn money through TikTok Shop. All you need to do is showcase or discuss a product in a video, link it via TikTok Shop, and you'll receive a commission for every sale made. Take Brandy Leigh, a 50-year-old mom of six from Indiana, as an example; she revealed to End Of World that she began creating UGC content on TikTok when she had just 1,000 followers, but she quickly grew her following to over 30,000 and earned $95,000 in commissions. It's a tempting opportunity for those looking to generate passive income from home.
The de minimis exemption could lead to a decline in purchases on TikTok Shop. Ash, a UGC creator on TikTok known as @shleystagram, shared with Mashable via direct message that she isn’t "too concerned about" how the tariffs might impact her job security, as "TikTok Shop isn't currently the primary source of my income." This sentiment holds true for many influencers and content creators — it serves more as a side gig rather than their main source of earnings.
"I think it just brings a lot of uncertainty," she said. "I never want to put all of my eggs in one basket because there’s a lot of unknowns right now."
Some TikTok Shop creators also earn revenue from brand deals. Of course, companies that are losing money on other fronts will likely spend less money on marketing. However, the marketing funds they do spend might lean more towards influencer partnerships than other forms of marketing. That means creators could see more revenue from brand deals if we enter a recession.
Layla Revis, Sprout Social's Vice President of Social, Content, and Brand, stated to Mashable that influencers serve as "trusted advocates" and play an "invaluable role" by being "on the front lines of the consumer experience." Due to this, Revis believes that "we will likely see brands increasingly engage in influencer partnerships during this period." Revis said.
I’ve decided going forward I want to limit my TikTok Shop posts because I never want to pressure anyone who sees my videos that they 'need' to buy something.
Beyond that, the de minimis exemption and the tariffs in general have caused economic distress across the world. In the U.S., farmers are struggling. All my favorite bathroom cabinet must-haves (toilet paper, eye makeup, cigars) might be hit with retaliatory tariffs from the European Union. The tariffs also have an outsize effect on tech — including the upcoming Switch 2. And a looming economic recession does pose a moral conundrum for some creators. Should they be hawking impulse buys on TikTok at a time like this?
"It absolutely is something I am taking into consideration when I think about what products I want to promote to my audience,"
Ash said.
"If I wouldn’t spend my own money on the product, I will politely decline any offers from brands that reach out for TikTok Shop collaborations. But even going forward, the economy is rough right now, and so unpredictable. Prices are raising on basically everything and it’s something I stress about, and I’m sure others can relate to that! So much that I’ve decided going forward I want to limit my TikTok Shop posts because I never want to pressure anyone who sees my videos that they 'need' to buy something."
Even with tariffs and the de minimis exemption in place, ultra-low-cost, quick e-commerce will continue to thrive, prompting a shift in the creator economy. You may simply need to swap out those trending $2 slippers for a pair that costs $8 instead.
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